I feel like I'm starting to understand what people mean when they say PLO is swingy. I have some serious issues with the way I played this hand, and I'll discuss them at the end.
(Note: I removed HUD stats from the screenshots, this is because I had less than 10 hands on every player and got nothing from the information, so I just felt it was screen clutter)
I'm UTG with double suited kings. I opened for pot (I feel this is fairly standard). I figured this being PLO I'd see some action, but didn't anticipate quite this much.
We got 3 callers in position on us and then the small blind repots it. OOP, this much aggression into a raise and 3 calls to me just absolutely screams aces - any other premium drawing hand doesn't make sense, as bloating the pot OOP without a made hand potentially against 5 players is an SPR disaster in my opinion. I suppose he could have premium kings but I block that, so I think we can safely say he has aces, probably good ones (again, no real reads on the player, no idea if he's flatting or potting weak aces in this spot). BB folds, back to me. I'm dominated, but I have position, and I have double suited kings, and the chances are I'm going to see more action behind me so I have excellent implied odds, especially as aces have to play it OOP and I estimate he won't have much more than a pot size bet left behind, so it's going in and then I can make the decision. We see 3 more calls.
The flop comes KT5 rainbow, which is just about the best flop I could've hoped for. As predicted, the small blind lead out for about 80% of pot, which to me just enforces the idea he has aces (not that I care much anymore!) as if he'd hit this board in any real way he'd most likely be looking to check-shove to maximise value and not scare away action. Here I elect to just flat call, absolutely terrified of scaring away any action.
This is where it really gets weird. The guy on my left shoves, and the button flat calls. The shove confuses me, as what could he possibly have that he's so desperate to get the chips in with? I conclude a big wrap or a lower set, maybe a two pair looking to crack aces. I have good equity against that. Then the button just flat calls, as if he's begging me to shove. What could he have? I have no idea, he's representing the hand I have. I conclude also just a set or a big nut wrap. The small blind shoves the remainder of his stack and I flat call. To be honest, this was just a misclick and I leave myself with about $0.30 behind and shove it on the turn and obviously get called. So we go to showdown on the turn, 4 ways;
I decided to go to the showdown on the flop, as it was going all in on the turn regardless of the card that came out, and the equities are a bit more relevant here. I was right about the small blind, he had strong aces, however he also had a gutterball and a backdoor flush draw. The one who shoved on my left has two pair, which I suppose makes sense as my flat sort of represents a draw or a hand I want to see a turn with and he has aces cracked so there's a good chance he has the best hand. The button has fuck all, a bare gutshot to a non-nut straight and a wrap draw, if that's even a thing. This call is just utterly atrocious, even if he is getting quite good odds he still needs to be good about 25% of the time as he's getting 2.95:1, and is a non-nut gutshot ever 25% here? No. So as is, I need to dodge a queen which I block, or one of the two remaining aces, one of which is held. Luckily I do hold to scoop a massive pot, which brought me right back into the green for the morning.
I have some serious issues with my preflop decision and really cannot decide if calling was right. In my head, I was looking for either a flush draw or a king to shove multiway and give myself good pot odds, but both of my flush draws were dominated. Especially considering how there was a lot of action preflop, people were representing strong hands, a lot of which naturally have kings in them, so I feel a lot of the time I'm drawing nearly dead preflop. Yes I won a huge pot, but this happens almost never in this spot, as I knew I was dominated and that was the best case. I had assumed I'd see more action behind me after I called pre but most of the time am I getting the right odds even then? I decided to ask PokerJuice.
For Preflop ranges, I gave the small blind AAxx and 2% 3bet OOP, and the other 3 I gave them 12% FI range and excluded 6% 3betIP, as we would've heard about those when I originally raised. I pretty much guessed the ranges as I know nothing about the players, but I'm also completely new to PJ - I'd love to hear what the general rules are for guessing opponent ranges. According to this, I take it down 20%, which for me is an okay call pre, considering the implied odds of having more callers behind me and the almost certain big bet from the small blind on almost any flop. It also suggests to me I was probably unlucky to be dominated in both flush draws, and it's not actually that much of a disaster here due to the low SPR - if I'd hit a good flush draw and been dominated when 500BB deep I imagine I'd have to consider the possibility of someone having the nut draw when the table shows this much aggression, but for my flop odds I don't think its terrible.
Sorry for the long post, I just wanted to really delve into this and make sure I played it okay, to be honest I'm still not positive I did, but I have arguments as to why I think its fine and explanations for each step and I think that's more important than anything in terms of improving. I'd absolutely love some feedback if anyone has any, especially about PJ ranging - I'm a bit clueless.
Hopefully see you next time! Seacombe